🤖 AI Nhận Định

<think>
Okay, let's tackle this technical analysis for TONUSDT on the 1-week chart. The user provided the current price at 2.829, along with EMA7, EMA25, RSI, MACD, support/resistance levels, and volume data.

First, I need to understand the trend. The EMA7 (2,955) is below EMA25 (3,526), which suggests a downward trend because the shorter EMA is below the longer one. That's a bearish sign. The price is currently below both EMAs, which reinforces the downtrend.

Looking at the RSI14 at 38.94, which is below 50, showing the asset is oversold. But the RSI isn't extremely low (like below 30), so maybe there's some selling pressure but not yet at extreme levels.

MACD is negative (-0.48), and since MACD line is below the signal line, that's another bearish indicator. The histogram's negative value also suggests downward momentum.

Support is at 2.354, and resistance is way up at 7.269. Considering current price is around 2,829, it's near the lower end. So the next move might be a bounce or a breakout. But the volume is decreasing, which usually means less interest, making a strong move harder. Weak volume often means trend continuation but not strong.

Since the trend is down and price is below EMAs, maybe shorting is better. The support level is 2.354, so if the price drops further, taking a short position below EMA7 with a stop above EMA7 could be a play. But wait, RSI is at 38. Maybe a bounce is possible? Hmm, but with EMA and MACD still bearish, maybe the bounce isn't strong. The support might hold, so short entry near current price, aiming for the support. Alternatively, waiting for a drop to support to go long on a reversal? Or short if support breaks?

But considering volume is decreasing, maybe there's a possibility of a retracement. However, the key here is the trend direction. Since EMA25 and EMA7 are both trending down, taking a short position could be viable. The best entry would be when price is near support, but if it breaks lower, then higher targets. Alternatively, if price bounces off support, maybe a long at that point. But since volume is decreasing, maybe the down move isn't strong, so maybe a short at current price with stop above EMA7? Or perhaps wait for a bounce above EMA7 to confirm a reversal before going long, but the RSI isn't indicating overbought yet.

So the best advice might be to short with entry near current price, target support, and stop above EMA7. Alternatively, wait for a pullback if there's a test of EMA7 resistance to enter short. But given the data, the overall trend indicates short entry now. The spot buy price should be when it breaks support? Or if it bounces higher, maybe when it drops to support. Need to prioritize based on current indicators.

Wait, since RSI is low, maybe a correction is due. But EMA and MACD say bearish. So conflicting signals. The RSI might indicate an oversold condition suggesting a potential reversal, but trend indicators are bearish. Traders might want to wait for confirmation. Maybe a short now with tight stop, or look for a bounce to a resistance level first before pulling back.

Hmm, given the data, perhaps best to recommend short position with entry now, considering the bearish trend, with target at support 2.354. Since the price is already near support, maybe the immediate target is near there.

For spot buying (long), maybe wait until the price bounces back up and crosses EMA7 before going long, so current price might not be the best entry. Suggest a spot buy after confirming a reversal, but given current readings, maybe not advisable yet.

So the final advice would be to go short because of bearish EMAs, negative MACD, and decreasing volume supporting downtrend. RSI might suggest oversold but trend indicators are strong in the downtrend, so short is better. The support level is a key target. The best short entry is at current price, stop-loss above EMA7 (maybe at EMA7 level), target near support. For buying spot, entering now could be risky unless a reversal is confirmed with higher volume.
</think>

**Phân tích:**
Giá hiện tại (2,829) dưới cả EMA7 (2,955) và EMA25 (3,526) → Xu hướng downtrend rõ ràng. RSI14 = 38.94 (oversold nhẹ), nhưng MACD (-0.48) và Trend Volume giảm cho thấy áp lực bán còn tiếp diễn. Kháng cự gần nhất là vùng 2,955 (EMA7), trong khi hỗ trợ quan trọng tại 2,354.

**Lời khuyên:**
- **Short** khi giá chạm EMA7 (2,955) hoặc hiện tại (2,829), dừng lỗ trên 3,000, mục tiêu xuống 2,354.
- **Tránh mua Spot** hiện tại do xu hướng giảm mạnh và volume giảm. Nếu mua, chờ breakout hỗ trợ (2,354) và có tín hiệu hồi giá rõ ràng.

**Giá mua spot tốt nhất:** Chờ tín hiệu hồi giá vượt EMA7 (2,955) kèm volume tăng để xác nhận đảo chiều.